Climate change as a security risk

For Policy-makers -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Environmental change in security discourse -- 2.1. Redefining security -- 2.2. Current security policy strategies -- 2.3. WBGU's aims and use of terms -- 3. Known conflict impacts of environmental change -- 3.1. State of conflict research at the interface of environment and security -- 3.2. World map of past environmental conflicts -- 3.3. War and conflict research -- 3.4. Conclusions -- 4. Rising conflict risks due to state fragility and a changing world order -- 4.1. Introduction -- 4.2. State fragility and the limits of governance -- 4.3. Unstable multipolarity: The political setting of global change -- 4.4. Conclusions -- 5. Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society -- 5.1. Changes in climatic parameters -- 5.2. Climate impacts upon human well-being and society -- 5.3. Non-linear effects and tipping points -- 6. Conflict constellations -- 6.1. Methodology -- 6.2. Conflict constellation 'Climate-induced degradation of freshwater resources' -- 6.3. Conflict constellation: 'Climate-induced decline in food production' -- 6.4. Conflict constellation: 'Climate-induced increase in storm and flood disasters' -- 6.5. Conflict constellation: 'Environmentally induced migration' -- 7. Hotspots of climate change: Selected regions -- 7.1. Arctic and Subarctic -- 7.2. Southern Europe and North Africa -- 7.3. Sahel zone -- 7.4. Southern Africa -- 7.5. Central Asia -- 7.6. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh -- 7.7. China -- 7.8. Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico -- 7.9. Andes region -- 7.10. Amazon region -- 8. Climate change us a driver of social destabilization and threat to international security -- 8.1. Climate-induced conflict constellations: Analysis and findings -- 8.2. International climate policy scenarios and their long-term implications -- 8.3. Climate change as a threat to international security -- 9. Research recommendations -- 9.1. Understanding the climate-security nexus - fundamentals -- 9.2. Policies to prevent and contain conflict -- 9.3. Conflict constellations and their prevention -- 10. Recommendations for action -- 10.1. WBGU's key findings -- 10.2. Scope for action Oil the part of the German government -- 10.3. The window of opportunity for climate security: 2007-2020 -- 10.4. Window missed - mitigation failed: Strategies in the event of destabilization and conflict -- 11. References -- 12. Glossary -- 13. Index.

Acronyms and abbreviations -- Environmental change in security discourse -- Known conflict impacts of environmental change -- Rising conflict risks due to state fragility and a changing world order -- Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society -- Conflict constellations -- Hotspots of climate change : selected regions -- Climate change as a driver of social destabilization and threat to international security -- Research recommendations -- Recommendations for action -- Glossary.