Forecasting, warning, and responding to transnational risks

What does it take to recognise and prevent hazards with international causes and consequences? How can we handle the risks related to financial instability, terrorism, pandemics, air pollution, flooding and climate change? The book brings together scholars and senior practitioners from different areas to conceptualise and empirically study the interlinked problems of forecasting, warning and mobilising preventive action. Contributors comment on key problems such as uncertainty, silo-mentality, spotting weak-signals, cultures of blame, conflicts of interest and divergent risk perceptions, but are also sensitive to differences between actors and types of risk. The overall thrust is to challenge both technocratic and popularised accounts of the warning-response problem. Successful prevention or mitigation involves difficult cognitive, normative and political judgements. Whilst these difficulties cannot be eliminated, contributors suggest ways in which organisations, journalists, scientists and decision-makers can at least mitigate them.

Titre de l'écran-titre (visionné le 6 août 2015).

Introduction: The Challenges of Prevention; C. De Franco & C.O. Meyer -- PART I: FORECASTING HARM -- The Coastline of The Future: Some Limits on Forecasting and Prediction; D. Omand -- Epistemology of Forecasting in International Relations: Knowing the Difference between 'Intelligence Failure' and 'Warning Failure'; J. Goldman -- Foresec: Lessons Learnt from a Pan-European Security Foresight Project; V. Brummer, C. Burnley, H. Carlsen, A. Duta, B. Giegerich & R. Magoni -- Modelling Transnational Environmental Risks: Scenarios for Decision Support; F. Wagner -- Risk, Uncertainty and the Assessment of Organised Crime; T. Van Der Beken -- PART II: COMMUNICATING AND LEARNING FROM WARNINGS -- Mediatised Warnings: Late, Wrong, Yet Indispensable? Lessons from Climate Change and Civil War; C. De Franco & C.O. Meyer -- Do They Listen? Communicating Warnings: An Intelligence Practitioners Perspective; W. Shapcott -- Responding to early flood warnings in the European Union; D. Demeritt & S. Nobert -- Dark Secrets: Face-Work, Organizational Culture and Disaster Prevention; M.S. Gerstein & E.H. Schein -- PART III: RESPONDING TO WARNINGS -- Transnational Risk Management: A Business Perspective;…