Modelling uncertainty in flood forecasting systems: dissertation

Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable. This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based criteria. This book presents the development and applications of various methods based on probablity and fuzzy set theories for modelling uncertainty in flood forecasting systems. In particular, it presents a methodology for uncertainty assessment using disaggr.

"Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements of the Board of Doctorates of Delft University of Technology and the Academic Board of UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education for the Degree of Doctor to be defended in public on Monday, 24 May 2004 at 10:30 hours in Delft, The Netherlands."

BOOK COVER; TITLE; COPYRIGHT; SUMMARY: MODELLING UNCERTAINTY IN FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEMS; TABLE OF CONTENTS; CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION; CHAPTER 2 FLOOD FORECASTING MODELS AND UNCERTAINY REPRESENTATION; CHAPTER 3 EXISTING MATHEMATICAL METHODS FOR UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT; CHAPTER 4 CONTRIBUTION OF PRESENT RESEARCH TO UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT METHODS; CHAPTER 5 APPLICATION: FLOOD FORECASTING MODEL FOR KLODZKO CATCHMENT (POLAND); CHAPTER 6 APPLICATION: FLOOD FORECASTING MODEL FOR LOIRE RIVER (FRANCE); CHAPTER 7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

APPENDIX I: FUZZY SETS, FUZZY ARITHMETIC AND DEFUZZIFICATIONABBREVIATIONS; NOTATIONS; REFERENCES; SAMENVATTING: MODELLERING VAN ONZEKERHEID IN SYSTEMEN VOOR HOOGWATERVOORSPELLING; ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS; ABOUT THE AUTHOR