North Korean Decisionmaking: Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use

by Parachini, John

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Title Statements

Full title :North Korean Decisionmaking : Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use / John V. Parachini, Scott W. Harold, Gian Gentile, Derek Grossman, Leah Heejin Kim, Logan Ma, Michael J. Mazarr, Linda Robinson.

Summary

This report is a compilation of three papers designed to stimulate discussion among those who are focused on North Korean decisionmaking. The first paper describes the experiences of North Korea and three similar authoritarian regimes-China, Vietnam, and Cuba-and provides a forecast of why and how North Korea might adopt a new economic model. The second paper describes decisions that the North Korean leadership might face in two scenarios in which conventional deterrence on the Korean Peninsula breaks down. The final paper provides an assessment of North Korean leadership decisionmaking about nuclear weapons doctrine. Despite the many unknowns surrounding the North Korean leadership decisionmaking process, these papers constructively outline the parameters of the North Korean decisionmaking "trade space" and the historical examples from which North Korean leaders might draw

Edition Statements

Publication Date:2020

Publication Statements

Publisher(s):RAND Corporation
Place of Publication:Santa Monica, CA
Language:eng
Publication Date:2020

Notes

"RAND National Defense Research Institute."

"Prepared for the National Intelligence Council."

The Physical Object

Description:xix, 103 pages : : color illustrations ; : 23 cm

Edition Identifiers

ISBN:1977405533, 9781977405531
DOI:10.7249/RRA165-1
oclc:on1198250126
LC Classification:JQ1729.5.A58
Dewey Decimal:320.95193

Introduction -- Prospects That North Korea Will Engage in Market Reform -- Conventional Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula: Two Scenarios for Analysis -- North Korea Nuclear Doctrine -- Conclusions.

Subjects

Armes nucléaires -- Contrôle -- Corée d… Armes nucléaires -- Corée du Nord Corée du Nord -- Politique et gouvernem… Economic policy Korea (North) Korea (North) -- Economic policy Korea (North) -- Politics and governmen… Nuclear arms control Nuclear arms control -- Korea (North) Nuclear weapons Nuclear weapons -- Korea (North) political leadership Political leadership -- Korea (North) Politics and government Politique économique Since 2011