Practical spreadsheet modeling using @Risk

Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk provides a guide of how to construct applied decision analysis models in spreadsheets. The focus is on the use of Monte Carlo simulation to provide quantitative assessment of uncertainties and key risk drivers. The book presents numerous examples based on real data and relevant practical decisions in a variety of settings, including health care, transportation, finance, natural resources, technology, manufacturing, retail, and sports and entertainment. All examples involve decision problems where uncertainties make simulation modeling useful to obtain decision insights and explore alternative choices. Good spreadsheet modeling practices are highlighted. The book is suitable for graduate students or advanced undergraduates in business, public policy, health care administration, or any field amenable to simulation modeling of decision problems. The book is also useful for applied practitioners seeking to build or enhance their spreadsheet modeling skills. Features Step-by-step examples of spreadsheet modeling and risk analysis in a variety of fields Description of probabilistic methods, their theoretical foundations, and their practical application in a spreadsheet environment Extensive example models and exercises based on real data and relevant decision problems Comprehensive use of the @Risk software for simulation analysis, including a free one-year educational software license

"A Chapman & Hall book."

Includes index.

Chapter 1: Conceptual Maps and Models 1.1Introductory Case: MoviePass 1.2 First Steps: Visualization 1.3 Retirement Planning Example 1.4 Good Practices with Spreadsheet Model Construction 1.5 Errors in Spreadsheet Modeling 1.6 Decision Analysis 1.7Conclusion: Best Practices Chapter 1 Exercises Chapter 2: Basic Monte Carlo Simulation in Spreadsheets 2.1 Introductory Case: Retirement Planning 2.2 Risk and Uncertainty 2.3 Scenario Manager 2.4 Monte Carlo Simulation 2.4.1 Generating Random Numbers 2.4.2 Monte Carlo Simulation for MoviePass 2.5 Monte Carlo Simulation Using @Risk 2.6 Monte Carlo Simulation for Retirement Planning 2.7 Presenting Results for Decision Making 2.8 Discrete Event Simulation Chapter 2 Exercises Chapter 3: Selecting Distributions 3.1 First Introductory Case: Valuation of a public company using expert opinion 3.2 Modeling Expert Opinion in the Valuation Model 3.3 Second Introductory Case: Value at Risk -- fitting distributions to data 3.4 Distribution Fitting for VaR -- Parameter and Model Uncertainty 3.4.1 Parameter Uncertainty 3.4.2 Model Uncertainty 3.5 Third Introductory Case: Failure Distributions 3.6 Commonly Used Discrete Distributions 3.7 Commonly Used C…