Probability, choice, and reason

Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary to what we might expect. Along the way, we venture into diverse realms and thought experiments which challenge the way that we see the world.Features:An insightful and engaging discussion of some of the key ideas of probabilistic and statistical thinkingMany classic and novel problems, paradoxes, and puzzlesAn exploration of some of the big questions involving the use of choice and reason in an uncertain worldThe application of probability, statistics, and Bayesian methods to a wide range of subjects, including economics, finance, law, and medicineExercises, references, and links for those wishing to cross-reference or to probe furtherSolutions to exercises at the end of the bookThis book should serve as an invaluable and fascinating resource for university, college, and high school students who wish to extend their reading, as well as for teachers and lecturers who want to liven up their courses while retaining academic rigour. It will also appeal to anyone who wishes to develop skills with numbers or has an interest in the many statistical and other paradoxes that permeate our lives. Indeed, anyone studying the sciences, social sciences, or humanities on a formal or informal basis will enjoy and benefit from this book.

1. Probability, Evidence, and Reason ; 2. Probability Paradoxes; 3. Probability and Choice; 4. Probability, Games, and Gambling; 5. Probability, Truth, and Reason; 6. Anomalies of Choice and Reason; 7. Game Theory, Probability, and Practice; 8. Further Ideas and Exercises; Solutions to Exercises.