The logic of intelligence analysis: why hypothesis testing matters

by Spielmann, Karl Frederick

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Title Statements

Full title :The logic of intelligence analysis : why hypothesis testing matters / Karl Spielmann.

Summary

"This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis. By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be inadequate, as they are illogical in terms of what formal philosophy says any intelligence analysts can realistically be expected to know, and for the future when analysts will face pressures to adapt to digital age modelling techniques. The methodology focuses on identifying and remedying analytic errors caused by analyst cognitive biases and by foreign denial and deception. To demonstrate that it is a practical tool, it walks analysts through a case study, step by step, to show how its hypothesis testing can be implemented. It also invites a comparative test in the real world with any other intelligence methodologies to assess its strengths and weaknesses in predicting the outcome of an actual "live" intelligence issue. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, public policy and national security, as well as practitioners"--

Edition Statements

Publication Date:2018

Publication Statements

Publisher(s):Routledge, Taylor and Francis Group
Place of Publication:London
Language:eng
Publication Date:2018

The Physical Object

Description:1 online resource

Edition Identifiers

ISBN:9780429469817, 0429469810, 9780429891885, 0429891881, 9780429891892, 042989189X, 9780429891878, 0429891873
DOI:10.4324/9780429469817
oclc:on1033688455
LC Classification:UB251.U5
Dewey Decimal:327.1273

Preface : revisiting an old problem : new concerns, new remedies -- Maybe it's time for something different -- Strengthening intelligence threat analysis -- Using enhanced analytic techniques for threat analysis : a case study illustration -- I got algorithm : can there be a Nate Silver in intelligence?

Subjects

Defensive (Military science) Intellect Intelligence service Intelligence service -- Methodology. --… Military art and science Military policy National security -- Evaluation. -- Uni… POLITICAL SCIENCE -- Government POLITICAL SCIENCE -- International Rela… Security, International Statistical hypothesis testing Tests d'hypothèses (Statistique) United States