The science of conjecture

The science of conjecture: evidence and probability before Pascal

by Franklin, James

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How did we make reliable predictions before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In The Science of Conjecture, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and how merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance r…

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Title Statements

  • Full title :The science of conjecture : evidence and probability before Pascal / James Franklin ; with a new preface.

Summary

How did we make reliable predictions before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In The Science of Conjecture, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and how merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates. The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human understanding of risk.

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Edition Statements

  • Publication Date:2015.
  • Edition:Johns Hopkins paperbacks edition

Publication Statements

The Physical Object

  • Description:1 online resource (1 PDF (xxi, 497 pages))

Edition Identifiers

  • ISBN:9781421418810, 1421418819
  • oclc:ocn912012281
  • LC Classification:QA273.A4
  • Dewey Decimal:519.2/09

Table of Contents

Preface to the 2015 edition -- Preface -- The ancient law of proof -- The medieval law of evidence : suspicion, half-proof, and inquisition -- Renaissance law -- The doubting conscience and moral certainty -- Rhetoric, logic, theory -- Hard science -- Soft science and history -- Philosophy : action and induction -- Religion : laws of God, laws of nature -- Aleatory contracts : insurance, annuities, and bets -- Dice -- Conclusion -- Epilogue : the survival of unquantified probability -- Appendix. Review of work on probability before 1660.

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Subjects

evidence Évidence -- Histoire Evidence -- History History Probabilités -- Histoire Probabilities Probabilities -- History

Writers

Franklin, James

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