Trusting Judgements

Trusting Judgements

by Burgman, Mark A.

Type Book
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"Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they …

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Title Statements

  • Full title :Trusting Judgements.

Summary

"Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made"--

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Edition Statements

  • Publication Date:2015.

Publication Statements

The Physical Object

  • Description:1 online resource (216 pages)

Edition Identifiers

  • ISBN:9781316282472, 1316282473
  • oclc:ocn990687660
  • LC Classification:JF1525.C6B87 2015
  • Dewey Decimal:352.373

Table of Contents

1. What's wrong with consulting experts? -- 2. Kinds of uncertainty -- 3. What leads experts astray? -- 4. Dealing with individual experts -- 5. The wisdom of crowds revisited -- 6. Tips to get the best out of experts.

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Subjects

Affaires -- Prise de décision Business -- Decision making Business consultants Conseillers d'entreprise Electronic books Expertise -- Political aspects Government consultants Public administration -- Decision making Savoir-faire -- Aspect politique Spécialistes Specialists

Writers

Burgman, Mark A.

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