Using meteorology probability forecasts in operational hydrology

Simplifies atmospheric predictions enabling lay persons to make derivative forecasts immediately, and allowing scientists and engineers to predict weather-dependent phenomena to assess the risks associated with decisions in the construction and operation phases of water resource planning. This method uses probabilistic meteorology forecasts over different time scales, time periods, spatial domains, and meteorology variables. The author is a research hydrologist at Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Department of Commerce. He is also associate editor of the Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR.

Table of Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Preface -- PART I. PRACTICAL USAGE -- Chapter 1. Introduction -- Background -- Structure of Book -- Chapter 2. Probability and Estimation -- A Probability Measure -- Outcomes and Events -- Random Variables and Distributions -- Distribution Characteristics -- Estimation -- Quantile Estimation -- Chapter 3. Outlook Definitions -- Deterministic Outlooks -- Probabilistic Outlooks -- Chapter 4. Probabilistic Meteorology Outlook Examples -- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Outlooks -- NOAA 8-14 Day Event Probability Outlooks.

NOAA Ensemble Event Probability Forecast Products -- NOAA 1-Day Precipitation Event Probability Anomaly Outlooks -- El Niño- and La Niña-Based Event Probability Outlooks -- NOAA 6-10 Day Most-Probable Event Outlooks -- Environment Canada (EC) Monthly Most-probable Event Outlook -- EC Seasonal Most-probable Event Outlook -- EC Extended Seasonal Most-Probable Event Outlooks -- Other Most-Probable Event Outlooks -- Chapter 5. Derivative Outlooks -- Derivative Deterministic Outlooks -- Derivative Probabilistic Outlooks -- Step-By-Step Instructions -- PART II. EXTENSIONS AND EXAMPLES.

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