Characterization of crowd behavior and movement

Type Thesis

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Summary

Existing research on pedestrian movement deals mainly with steady state flows under normal conditions. Virtually no scientific basis appears to be available in the literature to design and analyze strategies for the management of very large crowds associated with special events. This study develops a model of the dynamics of crowd behavior and movement, with particular reference to the "Jamarat" system, which is part of the annual Hajj (Muslim pilgrimage to Makkah, Saudi Arabia), where over two million pilgrims converge every year at the same time to perform this religious duty. The Jamarat system is a notorious crowd bottleneck, composed of three stone monuments, each surrounded by a ring, where pilgrims are supposed to throw pebbles in a given sequence. The dynamics of crowd behavior and movement around an individual Jamarat ring are modelled. The model consists of a set of simultaneous differential equations describing the principal processes that govern the dynamics of the system. These equations are solved numerically using a discretization of space and time, yielding a profile of the system's evolution. The use of the model is illustrated by examining the effect of different possible facility design and control strategies on the system's performance. Field data collected in connection with this study provided the basis for calibrating the model's principal relations, including a speed-concentration relation for multidirectional movement, which appears to be unprecedented in the literature.