Differential fertility in Cyprus: A micro-analysis

This dissertation is a micro-level case study of the determinants of fertility in Cyprus. The data is obtained from the government of the Republic of Cyprus. Analysis of the data includes cross-tabulation, breakdown, correlation, regression, and path analyses. The major finding of the study is that the basic models explaining fertility at the macro-level do, with some modifications, explain fertility differentials at the individual level. Four causal models explain as much as 46 percent of the variance in fertility. The number of children ever born to all ever married women aged 30 and above is related to the educational levels of women and their husbands, employment status, current age, age at marriage, child mortality, and residency. The same basic model explains fertility among women aged 50 and older. Child mortality is the single best predictor of fertility in any of the models. To further explore this relationship, two additional path models are presented. By selecting only those women who have experienced a death, the models explain 37 percent of the variance of "post-mortality fertility." Post-mortality fertility is related to age at marriage, child mortality, education, employment status, and residency. The significant impact of child mortality lead to a conclusion that lost children are usually replaced. The relacement theory is clearly supported by the data. A third major finding of this study is that the type of secondary school attended affects the level of fertility. Though the relationships are weak, the type of secondary school attended does have an effect on fertility. A fourth finding is the impact of residency. While Cyprus is a compact nation, fertility differentials differ with district of residency.