INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION IN IRAN

Rapid urbanization now makes headlines in Iranian newspapers almost every day. This urbanization is considered to be a consequence of an acceleration in population growth and a large scale migration from rural to urban areas during the last five decades. This study focuses upon the trends and patterns of Iranian internal migration during the period 1966-1976, with a view to identifying the determinants and consequences of population movements. Estimates of migration for Iran's twenty-three provinces were obtained from the 1966 and 1976 censuses by using the census survival ratio method and the place of birth method. Among the major findings were the following: first, there has been a major demographic shift from rural to urban areas and from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors. Second, at the provincial level, ten of twenty-three provinces have experienced heavy urban in-migration. Third, in comparison with the previous period, 1956-1966, there was a sharp increase in migrants. Migration data at the provincial level were used in a multiple regression framework in order to identify the factors that were responsible for internal population movements in Iran. The explanatory variables that proved significant include a composite index of development, distance, wages, unemployment and urbanization. The regressions showed a tendency for migrants to move into provinces with high levels of urban and economic development. For out-migrants, the pattern of choice among destinations was influenced mostly by both labor market conditions and distance. However, unlike many other studies, this study revealed a negative correlation between migration and urbanization indicating that urbanization at the destination did not increase migration. The last phase of the study concerns the effect of migration on the population structure and income distribution in Iran. The following conclusions were reached: first, the degree of urbanization accelerated during the period 1966-1976. Second, migration affected mainly youth adults. Third, internal migration affected the composition of manpower at both origin and destination. Finally, internal migration has produced significant negative changes in the distribution of income of Iran.