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"In the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, gamblers and mathematicians transformed the idea of chance from a mystery into the discipline of probability, setting the stage for a series of breakthroughs that enabled or transformed innumerable fields, from gambling, mathematics, …
The evolution of the concept of "randomness" is explored through the method of historical research. This dissertation examines the use of chance mechanisms through artifacts originating in Mesopotamia, the Indus valley, Egypt, and Babylonia as early as the third millennium B.C. …
How should our beliefs change over time? The standard answer to this question is the Bayesian one. But while the Bayesian account works well with respect to beliefs about the world, it breaks down when applied to self-locating or de se beliefs. In this work I explore ways to ext…
"Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don't understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes--Antifragile, The Black Swan…
"Photographer Mark Menjivar spent years exploring the intersections between luck and the beliefs, superstitions, and traditions people hold dear. The physical Luck Archive contains rings, coins, clovers, charms, patches, underwear, sports superstitions, lottery strategies, anima…
Artist Mark Menjivar was in an antique bookshop in Fort Wayne, Indiana, when he found 4 four-leaf clovers pressed between the yellowed pages of an aged copy of 1000 Facts Worth Knowing. Their discovery beguiled Menjivar so much that he began a multiyear exploration into the conc…
"Photographer Mark Menjivar spent years exploring the intersections between luck and the beliefs, superstitions, and traditions people hold dear. The physical Luck Archive contains rings, coins, clovers, charms, patches, underwear, sports superstitions, lottery strategies, anima…
