Uncertainty

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It is often argued that monetary instability reduces the informational content of market signals and thereby hinders the efficient allocation of investment. Essay I, uses a signal extraction framework to give empirical content to this idea. In particular, we show why this framew…

This dissertation examines the effect of model-selection uncertainty in autoregressive models. The first chapter of the dissertation identifies the effects of model-selection uncertainty in autoregressive models—namely, the bias of the coefficient estimates, the bias of their st…