Thesiss

This project analyzes the relationship between foreign-policy decision-making, surprise and misjudgment using a multi-method approach. In recent years, high profile foreign policy and intelligence failures have captured the attention of policymakers, the media and academics alik…

Environmental surprises are bound to occur. Surprise is a phenomenon relative to human perception and is felt when events deviate from the expected or are entirely unanticipated prior to their occurrence. Surprise is induced by uncertainty, complexity, and chaos in environmental…