This study presents a signal approach for predicting the occurrence of currency and banking crisis by using Kaminsky and Reinhart's (1999) Signal Model. The paper focuses on testing this theory by examining the twin crises that occurred in Turkey in 1994 and 2001. In the first s…
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This dissertation is comprised of four distinct essays in the general fields of empirical development and transition economics. The first essay concerns poverty change in Indonesia over the period 1984–1996 and measures the extent to which poverty change is correlated with overa…
This dissertation comprises the empirical analysis of three fundamental issues in emerging markets. They are the following: (1) economic growth, (2) co-movements of sovereign spreads and (3) economic determinants of these spreads. The first chapter (with Joseph Stiglitz) examine…
The first essay of this dissertation examines the 1997 Asian financial crisis. It is shown that existing literature on currency crises fail to provide any early warning indicators that would have predicted the across-the-board distress seen in the Asian economies. An alternative…
This dissertation consists of three empirical chapters that address different aspects of private capital flows and financial crises in Asian and Latin American emerging markets. Chapter 1 studies the different channels through which economies become vulnerable to currency crises…
Economic crises place great pressures on authoritarian regimes. Why do some authoritarian regimes survive economic crises by adopting adjustment policies that their supporters demand, while other authoritarian regimes offer inconsistent adjustment policies and subsequently colla…
The recent wave of financial crises in the 1990s and the 2000s resulted in severe economic distress among emerging market countries across several regions. The exchange rate plunged sharply at the time of crisis and output severely contracted. Using the quarterly data of the Asi…
The free flow of global capital has been accompanied by destabilizing international financial crises. The political economy of such crises remain a largely unexplored topic. The essays in this dissertation examine the circumstances surrounding crisis resolution and consequence. …
The chapters in this dissertation deal broadly with issues related to outsourcing and financial crises. All three chapters are empirical in nature and utilize plant and/or firm level datasets. The second and third chapters are in the field of trade and labor economics; they focu…
These essays explore the debilitating role played by financial crises in economic performance, analyzed at the microeconomic level of the household; the impact of institutions on human capital accumulation, both at the microeconomic and macroeconomic levels; and the role played …
The dissertation aims to understand the political basis behind the initiation and longevity of the process of financialization of the Turkish economy in the post-1980 period. While some of the existing literature focuses on the role of states in initiating the process of financi…
During the second half of the nineteenth century, the financial crises of the Ottoman Empire increasingly made visible the contestation within the public. Multiple political and economic actors, such as intellectuals, bureaucrats, merchants, and bankers, challenged and profited …
Financial crises are significant economic, political and international events. In today's financial affairs, the world cannot ignore financial crises occurring in a particular country or region due to their multiple economic, financial and political implications at domestic, reg…
Following the 2008 Financial Crisis, the field of Macroeconomics entered a remarkable phase of methodological transformation. The reason for this is twofold. First, the standard approach of locally approximating equilibrium near a deterministic steady state is naturally ill-suit…
This thesis explores three important factors that have been central to the pursuit of economic development in developing countries, particularly those in Africa. These are capital flows, economic integration and financial crises. Chapter 1 examines the causes and consequences of…
The main objective of this dissertation is to investigate the dynamics of credit expansion and its link with economic volatility in Turkey. First, we introduced currency substitution as a factor, which becomes intertwined with liquidity preference in the case of a financially li…