Why an individual rebels, why an individual joins collective action, and how that manifests to violence are not new questions, but are questions that continue to pose a significant scientific challenge. It is the role of the conflict analyst to answer these questions by explorin…
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In this dissertation I examine why some development projects have succeeded while others failed to complete during the post-2001 Afghan insurgency. Through disaggregated statistical analysis, I find that interactions of location, time, ethnic heterogeneity (Cederman et al. 2009)…
Literature on the modeling and simulation of complex adaptive systems (cas) has primarily advanced vertically in different scientific domains with scientists developing a variety of domain-specific approaches and applications. However, while cas researchers are inherently intere…
This dissertation explores the ineffectiveness of development assistance as an intervention into a complex system, and makes a contribution in explaining how and why this is so. Specifically, this issue is explored within a charity-philanthropy context. As the build component of…
2011 was a seminal year in the history of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Popularly referred to as the Arab Spring, the region has experienced a wave of revolutions and instability. It can be classified in three broad categories within 2011: Uprisings that have resulted…
On the morning of December 17th 2010, a Tunisian fruit vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi took a can of gasoline and lit himself on fire in front of the local governor's office in protest of having his cart and its inventory confiscated by a corrupt police force. What began as act of…
The thesis investigates how Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) and Queueing Theory (QT) techniques help manage mass gathering (MG) crowds. The techniques are applied to Hajj MG, which is one of the most complex annual MG, with a focus on its challenging Tawaf ritual. The…
Post-Soviet central Asian states initially diverged into a variety of different regimes. Kyrgyzstan experimented with democracy, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan established authoritarian regimes, while Tajikistan succumbed to civil war. Regardless what particular form their governme…
This dissertation investigates, models, and tests hypotheses on how the current surge in large-scale land acquisition might affect rural livelihood in developing countries. The focus is on southern Ethiopia, specifically the South Omo zone, where ongoing large-scale land acquisi…
I use an agent-based model to model a dynamic network that considers the rate at which Islamism will spread globally. I define Islamism as the organized political trend that seeks to solve modern political problems by referencing Muslim teachings. The trend is also associated wi…
Why do some leaders deliberately foster ethnic hatred and exclusion even though such a policy increases the risk of ethnic conflict? Contrary to common belief, I find that ethnic exclusion is good politics (but not good policy) for non-democratic leaders with small winning coali…
In life, many decision-making problems are complicated because agents - biological and artificial alike - typically can not directly observe all aspects of their environments. Moreover, consequences of the agents’ actions in terms of reward gain typically unfold over time. The a…
Cities with aging building stocks and budgetary challenges often have a high number of buildings in need of energy efficiency upgrades. Inefficient residential buildings have a higher energy consumption and its associated negative, unintended environmental and social consequence…
This dissertation takes an interdisciplinary approach to understanding what makes states antifragile and why this matters by constructing a parsimonious, first of its kind agent-based model. The model focuses on the key elements of state antifragility that reside along a spectru…
Understanding the systems and processes that make up international relations and politics is difficult. Outcomes may appear unpredictable and the processes by which decisions get made may seem too complicated to understand or model. Decisions about complex issues like the decisi…