Forecasting the success of megaprojects is a very difficult and important task because of the complexity of such projects, as well as the large capital investment that is required for the completion of these projects. One could argue that forecasting is not needed in this contex…
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An accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is one of the most critical inputs for power plant units’ planning commitment. STLF reduces the overall planning uncertainty added by the intermittent production of renewable sources; thus, it helps to minimize the hydro-thermal ele…
This thesis may be broadly divided into 4 parts. In the first part, we do a literature review of the state of the art in misspecification in Macroeconomics, and what so far has been the contribution of a relatively new area of research called Uncertainty Quantification to the Ma…
As energias renováveis tornaram-se uma fonte substancial de energia em quase toda a Europa devido ao ambiente limpo e livre de poluição em comparação com os combustíveis fósseis que são usados principalmente para a geração de energia. Por estas razões também em Portugal a atençã…
Predecir el precio del cobre no es una tarea fácil. Productores, consumidores, inversionistas e incluso algunos gobiernos deben enfrentarse a este tema. Existen muchas fuentes de información y diferentes modelos para completarla, sin embargo, no hay un consenso claro de cuándo e…
Ground-level ozone and atmospheric fine particles (PM 2.5 ) have been recognized as critical air pollutants that act as important contributors to the toxicity of anthropogenic air pollution in urban areas. To limit the adverse impacts on public health and ecosystems of ground-le…
The combination of 10 years of drought in the Chilean Andes and an increased demand water supply and agricultural activities has created the need for better forecasts to inform water management and decision making. The existing water supply forecasts have been insufficient for t…
Hospitals in the United States find it difficult to meet patient demand in a timely manner. They look for solutions that would better allow them to manage patient flow, and at the same time avoid allocating more resources than necessary. This research has two main objectives. Th…
In the context of real time electricity pricing, energy consumption by Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems is usually heaviest when prices are at their highest. In order to reduce expenditure while adequately maintaining indoor comfort conditions, Economic …
Scope and method of study. The general objective is to determine if the COMMEX Malaysia crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract can be used to reduce CPO producers' risk exposure due to cash price fluctuations. The specific objectives are to evaluate the relationship between CPO's…
Forecasting the Nile River flow is of vital interest for African nations such as Sudan and Egypt. These nations use the Nile's water for agriculture and hydropower. An accurate forecast of water availability would be beneficial for efficient management of water resources facilit…
This research focuses on the development of a novel approach to the quantification of manufacturing quality. This quantification typically relies on values of the mean and standard deviation--two basic parameters in the determination of quality. When data points are used to appr…
The Citarum River basin in West Java, Indonesia, has a cascade of three reservoirs, Saguling Reservoir, Cirata Reservoir, and Juanda Reservoir, linked in series from upstream to downstream. Cirata and Saguling Reservoirs function primarily for hydroelectric power production, whi…
This study investigates the forecast experiences of the western and central provinces of Canada during the period 1971 to 1996. It discusses the issue of informational efficiency and the behavioural approach to revenue forecasting. The study is undertaken (a) to assess the forec…
The analysis of time series has long been the subject of interest in different fields. For decades time series were analysed with linear models, which have many advantages. Nevertheless, an issue which has been raised is whether there exist other models that can explain and fore…
Water scarcity is a global threat due to lifestyle and climate changes, pollution of water resources, as well as a rapidly growing population. The UK water industry's regulators demand plans from water companies to sustainably manage their water resources, reduce per capita cons…
This research assessed market efficiency, volatility behaviour, asset pricing, and oil price risk exposure of the oil and gas companies quoted on the London Stock Exchange with the aim of providing fresh evidence on the pricing dynamics in this sector. In market efficiency analy…
This PhD thesis focuses on using time series models for counts in modelling and forecasting a special type of count series called intermittent series. An intermittent series is a series of non-negative integer values with some zero values. Such series occur in many areas includi…
This thesis explores Centralised Demand Information Sharing (CDIS) in supply chains. CDIS is an information sharing approach where supply chain members forecast based on the downstream member’s demand. The Bullwhip Effect is a demand variance amplification phenomenon: as the dem…